I was recently asked about my thoughts on Meta's Orion AR glasses, specifically whether such glasses have a chance of becoming as big as (or replacing) smartphones in the future.
I was recently asked my opinion on a subject. lifeline Article about Meta's Orion AR glasses and the future they may or may not portend. Only a small portion of my overall response was used, and it was used in a way that supported the article's (reasonably) skeptical approach to the future of AR glasses. However, given that I believe AR glasses are the inevitable future of smartphones (becoming the cornerstone of our daily digital lives), I think it would be helpful to share my full answer on record.
Q: Everyone who owns a smartphone is a disruption in the market at one time or another because they are subsidized and are replacing the cell phones that everyone else has. Do you think most people will buy AR glasses?
I: Like the world's largest technology companies (Meta, Apple, Google, etc.), I believe that AR glasses are the inevitable long-term evolution of smartphones. The 'easy sell' (if all the other parts can be figured out) is to imagine if you could do everything you can do on your phone today, except for a magic screen that floats in front of you and can be scaled to any size you want. We need it all the time. So when you're walking down the street there might be a small window showing you a message, but when you get home you might have a 30-foot cinema screen on your wall.
If you can build a device that can do this (and we have reason to believe we can't), then you haven't just replaced your smartphone… Moreover You replaced your TV. Think of all the other screens in your life beyond your phone and TV: your laptop screen, your desktop monitor, your smartwatch… they can all be replaced with virtual screens from a single device that's always with you. You can't fit a 65″ 4K TV in your pocket… but if you have glasses that can mimic that display, you can literally take it with you wherever you go.
If you've had the chance to use Apple Vision Pro, you can clearly see that this idea is much more than a dream. The virtual screens created by Vision Pro are incredibly high quality. For most people, a virtual TV window in Vision Pro is higher quality than any TV they've ever owned (not to mention it works better than any existing 3DTV or 3D movie theater because using one screen for each eye is much better). creates too many images). better 3D image than the glasses you wear for 3DTV or movies).
All of this is true, but the Vision Pro is still huge! The tech industry's current challenge is figuring out how to pack the features, specs, and quality of Vision Pro into a pair of glasses the size of Orion. this one bodied technical challenge that will require multiple breakthroughs.
this again long term vision — at least 10 years from now. The Orion represents a real step towards making this a reality, but it's still very limited compared to the experience you'd get from a bulky headset like the Vision Pro. Orion himself Negative It's good enough to replace the smartphone, but the future direction is clear.
For these reasons, yes, I think people will buy AR glasses, but not until they provide better value than their smartphones. And this will continue for at least another decade.
Q: You can't type, the battery will never be as good as a bigger phone, and you have to wear glasses. really? [AR glasses] Is it a dead end? Why or why not?
I: Typing on the XR isn't exactly broken, but there's no reason to think it never will. This is like thinking that a software keyboard on a smartphone can never be as good as a physical keyboard like the one on a Blackberry… but this couldn't be more thoroughly disproven.
There are many research avenues that can make typing feel great for such devices; I recommend you take a look at the EMG input device Meta is working on.
There's no reason to think battery life will never match that of a phone. Meta is already working on this challenge with Orion, which uses a wireless 'computing disk' (containing a large battery and processor) that offloads the glasses' heaviest workload to this much larger device. This means that the glasses can be quite low power, while doing most of the calculations on the compute disk before transferring it for display on the glasses. Because this computing disk doesn't need to be constantly out of your pocket like a smartphone (and doesn't need a screen, cameras, etc.), it can actually have a larger battery than the average smartphone.
Q: Why are Zuckerberg and Meta so desperate for something to replace Android and iOS phones?
I: Meta has always been beholden to Google and Apple because these companies control the platforms Meta uses to reach its audience. The commodity must abide by their rules.
Meta's journey into immersive technology, which began with its 2014 acquisition of VR startup Oculus, came about because Zuckerberg wanted to move past Google and Apple to the “next computing platform” so he wouldn't be stuck in their hands. I gave a breakdown of this earlier this year in an article outlining Zuckerberg's decade-plus efforts to surpass Apple and Google in immersive technology.